Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $29,559$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,305.4}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(36,305.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,127$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(31 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,675.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 72.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,675.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,999$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $67,307$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(924 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,894.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 55.0)}}\) (asimptote \(115,894.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,889$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(40.3 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,067.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,067.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $44,069$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $162,699$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{502,616.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 63.6)}}\) (asimptote \(502,616.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,123$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(268 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,224.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 50.2)}}\) (asimptote \(22,224.8\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $86,619$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $28,866$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,012.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 73.6)}}\) (asimptote \(91,012.9\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $312$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(25.7 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{351.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(351.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,442$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,556$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(41.3 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,069.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 73.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16,069.4\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $118$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(8.44 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,410.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 93.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,410.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,165$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,063$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(505 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,953.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 59.9)}}\) (asimptote \(24,953.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $463$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(36.7 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{599.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(599.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,895$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,034$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(573 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,326.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,326.5\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $305$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(32.6 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{377.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(377.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,972$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $707$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(185 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{662.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 20.7)}}\) (asimptote \(662.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $19$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.04 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 22.1)}}\) (asimptote \(20.6\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $171$ on 2020-05-10
